Ⅲ. China-ASEAN Economic and Trade Analysis of Quarter 2, 2014

In the first half of 2014, the total trade volume between China and ASEAN countries amounts to 220.693 billion USD, an increase of 4.8% compared to last year, which has occupied 10.92% of China’s overall foreign trade volume with a slightly increase in proportion. Back in the first half of 2013, the total China-ASEAN trade increased by 10.9% year-on-year, with 3.3 percent higher than the average growth rate of China’s overall foreign trade. In the first half of this year, China-ASEAN trade growth rate achieved 4.8% year-on-year, which is 3.6 percent higher than that of China’s overall foreign trade.

In the first half of 2014, China realized 2.52 billion USD investment into ASEAN countries, an increase of 14% year-on-year. While ASEAN investment into China was 3.42 billion USD, a decline of 19.2%. By the end of June 2014, the total investment between China and ASEAN was nearly 120 billion USD, among which ASEAN investment into China occupies 80 billion USD and China investment into ASEAN 40 billion USD.

ASEAN is the major destination for Chinese enterprises to conduct project contracting and labor cooperation. By the end of June this year, in terms of project contracting, the accumulative contract signed by Chinese companies with ASEAN countries has exceeded 180 billion USD, the already achieved turnover has surpassed 125 billion USD.

3.1 Q2 China-ASEAN trade volume increased by 9.74% than Q1

In the second half of 2014, China-ASEAN trade amounts to 115.473 billion USD, went up by 9.74% than last quarter. China exported 66.646 billion USD to ASEAN countries, which was an increase of 18.53% than Q1. During the same period, China imported 48.828 billion USD from ASEAN, with a decline of 0.34% than Q1.

China-ASEAN Trade Volume in the First and Second Quarter, 2014

During the second quarter of 2014, among the trade between China and ten ASEAN countries, the top three trade partners with China are Malaysia, Vietnam and Singapore. In terms of growth rate, the top three countries ranked as Cambodia (increase by 168.25%), Myanmar (increase by 22.8%) and Vietnam (increase by 20.03%) .

During the second quarter of 2014, among the trade between China and ten ASEAN countries, seeing from export volume, the top three export partners with China are Vietnam, Singapore and Malaysia. In terms of growth rate, the top three countries ranked as Cambodia (increase by 168.25%), Vietnam (increase by 22.34%) and Malaysia (increase by 21.94%).

During the second quarter of 2014, among the trade between China and ten ASEAN countries, seeing from import volume, the top three import partners with China are Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore. In terms of growth rate, the top three countries ranked as Myanmar (increase by 52.38%), the Philippines (increase by 19.11%) and Vietnam (increase by 13.27%).

3.2 The trade surplus and deficit situation between China and ASEAN

Looking at the trade surplus and deficit situation between China and ASEAN countries in the second quarter of 2014, China only had deficits with Malaysia and Thailand and had surpluses with all other eight ASEAN countries. The deficit between China and Malaysia reached 2.094 billion USD and the deficit between China and Thailand reached 1.126 billion USD. China gained the largest surplus with Vietnam (10.249 billion USD) among other ASEAN countries.

As for the trade between China and ten ASEAN countries, China gained the fastest surplus with Indonesia, Cambodia and Singapore in second quarter comparing to the first quarter. The surplus growth were 736.96%, 445.07% and 110.58% with these three countries.

3.3 China-ASEAN Top Three Commodities

During the second quarter of 2014, seeing from the commodity structure of export and import, machinery and electronic products maintain the largest category in bilateral trade. According to the statistics from China Customs, China imported 21.15 billion USD machinery and electronic products from ASEAN countries, increased by 7.47% compared to the Quarter 1, and occupied 31.73% of all products that China imported from ASEAN. Considering of main export countries, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand are the major countries that export machinery and electronic products to China, the volume is respectively 8.787 billion USD, 3.429 billion USD and 3.426 billion USD. In terms of growth rate, the top three countries are Vietnam, Singapore and Myanmar, respectively increased by 1050.64%, 923.26% and 61.53% compared to last quarter.

China exported 21.886 billion USD machinery and electronic products into ASEAN countries, increased by 17.7% compared to the Quarter 1. Considering of countries, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia are the major export destinations for machinery and electronic products of China, the volume is respectively 4.92 billion USD, 4.51 billion USD and 3.527 billion USD. The three countries have accounted 59% of the overall volume of exported machinery and electronic products. In terms of growth rate, the top three countries are Singapore Vietnam, and Malaysia, respectively increased by 56.56%, 43.5% and 12.28% compared to last quarter.

The second largest category of commodity that China imported from ASEAN is mineral products, with the amount of 7.752 billion USD, decreased by 16.72% compared to Q1, and accounted 15.88% of all imported goods from ASEAN into China. Seeing from countries, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore are the major origins for mineral products imported into China, the volume is respectively 2.156 billion USD, 1.735 billion USD and 1.372 billion USD. Even though mineral products are second largest category imported commodity from ASEAN into China, there are only 4 countries as the Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar and Malaysia enjoyed the momentum of slight increase.

The third largest category of commodity that China imported from ASEAN is plastic and rubber products, with the amount of 4.805 billion USD, decreased by 14% compared to Q1, among which rubber accounts for 2.627 billion USD, went up 1.63% than the first quarter, and plastic products 2.278 billion USD, declined by 17.21%. Considering of countries, Thailand is the largest market for China to import rubber and plastic products, with the trade volume as 2.158 billion USD, which has declined 18.42% than Q1. China has also imported from Singapore and Malaysia of 1.089 billion USD and 0.985 billion USD. During the past second quarter, except the increase of Myanmar (increased by 534.77%) and Malaysia (increased by 1.53%), all other ASEAN countries encountered with the decline, especially Vietnam decreased by 42.27%.

The second largest category of commodity that China exported to ASEAN is textiles and textile products, with the amount of 9.711 billion USD, increased 42.2% compared to Q1. Considering of countries, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia are the top three export target markets for China, with the respective trade volume of 3.779 billion USD, 1.496 billion USD and 1.298 billion USD. In terms of growth rate for export, the top three countries are Myanmar, Indonesia, and Singapore, respectively increased by 113.76%, 50.36% and 45.4% compared to last quarter, and all other ASEAN countries also experienced increase in the past three months.

The third largest category of commodity that China exported into ASEAN is base metals and products, with the amount of 8.279 billion USD, increased 23.48% compared to Q1. Among which Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia are three major export destinations for China, with the respective export volume of 1.956 billion USD, 1.477 billion USD and 1.193 billion USD. In terms of growth rate for export, the top three countries are Malaysia, Thailand and Myanmar, respectively increased by 54.99%, 35.17% and 23.14% compared to last quarter.

3.4 China-ASEAN’s trade by categories

Hereby briefly analyze the commodity trade between China and ASEAN countries, in the 2nd quarter of 2014 , according to the categories divided by China Customs.

Category 1 Live animals; animal products

China-ASEAN trade volume in “live animal and animal products” totaled 840 million USD, accounting for 0.73% of China-ASEAN trade volume. Both export and import of fish and aquatic invertebrates accounted for 76% of category 1, the largest proportion, with import volume reached 221 million USD and export volume 418 million USD, an increase of 8% than Q1. Live animal and its products accounted for the smallest part with a trade volume of 10 million USD.

Category 2 Plant products

China-ASEAN trade volume in “plant products” totaled 3.27 billion USD, accounting for 2.83% of China-ASEAN trade volume. China’s import totaled 1.98 billion USD, and export 1.30 billion USD. Import volume of edible fruit and nuts and muskmelon reached 778 million USD, accounting for 39% of of Category 2 with the largest proportion. The main export products were edible vegetables, roots and tubers, totaling 727 million USD, accounting for 56% and 24% higher than Q1. Among Category 2, China’s import of live plants, stem root flowers and the foliage accounted for the smallest proportion, and China’s export of plant materials for knitting accounted for the smallest proportion of export.

Category 3 Vegetable oil, grease and wax; refined edible oils and fats

China-ASEAN trade volume in “vegetable oil, grease and wax; refined edible oils and fats” was 1.49 billion USD, accounting for 1.29% of China-ASEAN trade volume. China’s import volume reached 1.46 billion USD, and export 26 million USD. Export increased by 116% and import decreased by 43% than Q1.

Category 4 Food, beverage, wine and vinegar; tobacco and tobacco products

China-ASEAN trade volume in “food, beverage, wine and vinegar; tobacco and tobacco products” totaled 1.25 billion USD, accounting for 1.08% of China-ASEAN trade volume. China’s import volume reached 54 million USD, and export 1.19 billion USD. The import of miscellaneous products totaled 321 million USD, accounting for 38% of Category 3, the largest part. The main export products were residue and waste of food industry and formula feed, totaling 272 million USD, accounting for 23%, an increase of 186% than Q1. Of Category 3, China’s import of residue and waste of food industry and formula feed from ASEAN countries accounted for the smallest part; cocoa and its products accounted for the smallest part of export volume.

Category 5 Mineral products

China-ASEAN trade volume in mineral products totaled 10.54 billion USD, accounting for 9.13% of the total trade volume. China’s import volume reached 7.75 billion USD, and export 2.79 billion USD. Mineral fuel and oil and its products and pitch accounted for 80.37%, the largest part of import, with the import volume of 6.23 billion USD. Mineral fuel and oil and its products and pitch accounted for the largest part of export with a export volume of 2.66 billion USD, accounting for 95.49%. Salt, sulfur, soil and stone, lime and cement witnessed the largest increase than Q1, by 24%; ores, slag and ash declined the most than Q1, by 31%.

Category 6 Chemical industry and related products

China-ASEAN trade volume in chemical industry and related products totaled 7.24 billion US dollars, accounting for 6.27%. China’s import reached 3.27 billion US dollars, and export 3.97 billion US dollars. Of the import and export volume, organic chemicals accounted for the biggest part, accounting for 60.83% and 12.89% and with a volume of 1.98 billion US dollars and 1.29 billion US dollars respectively. Explosives, fireworks, fire products and combustible products increased the most than Q1 by 63% while organic chemicals declined the most than Q1 by 3%.

Category 7 Plastics, rubber and their products

China-ASEAN trade volume in plastics, rubber and their products totaled 7.48 billion USD, accounting for 6.48% of the total trade volume. China’s import reached 4.81billion USD, and export 2.67 billion USD. Of the import volume, plastics and its products accounted for the largest part, 54.67%, to 2.63 billion USD. Plastics and its products accounted for the largest part of export, 73.77%, reaching 1.97 billion USD; it also saw the biggest increase than Q1, increased by 8%. Of Category 7, rubber and its products declined the most than Q1 by 12%.

Category 8  Furs and related products; bags and manufacture

China-ASEAN trade volume in leather, furs and related products; bags and manufacture totaled 822 million USD, accounting for 0.71% of the total trade volume. China’s import reached 165 million USD, and export 657 million USD. Of import volume, rawhide( fur excluded) and leather accounted for the largest part, to 69.70%, with the volume of 115 million USD. Leather products, traveling bags and manufacture accounted for the largest part, to 76.71%, with the volume of 504 million USD. The import and export of fur, artificial fur and their products increased the most than Q1, by 475%.

Category 9  Wood and its products; charcoal; soft wood;knitted products

China-ASEAN trade volume in wood and its products; charcoal; soft wood;knitted products totaled 2.11 billion USD, accounting for 1.83% of the total trade volume. China’s import reached 1.69 billion USD, and export 419 million USD. Wood and its products and charcoal accounted for the largest part of import volume, to 99.99%, with a volume of 1.69 billion USD, an increase of 92% than Q1; it also accounted for the largest part of export volume, to 73.53%, with a volume of 308 million USD, an increase of 31% than Q1. Of Category 9, knitting products, baskets and wickerwork increased the most than Q1, by 277%.

Category 10 Cellulose pulp, waste paper, paper, paperboard and products

The China-ASEAN trade in terms of Cellulose pulp, waste paper, paper, paperboard and products amounts to 1.157 billion USD, which occupies 0.1% of bilateral trade volume. China imported 0.536 billion USD and exported 0.621 billion USD. Wood cellulose pulp, waste paper and paperboard maintains the largest proportion in import as 60.55% and 0.325 billion USD. Paper and paperboard, paper pulp, and its products is the largest export category as 93.81% and 0.583 billion USD, an increase of 14.93% compared with Q1.

Category 11 Textile material and its products

China-ASEAN trade volume in textile material and its products totaled 10.07 billion USD, accounting for 8.72% of the total trade volume. China’s import reached 921 million USD, and export 9.15 billion USD. Of the import volume, cotton accounted for the largest part, to 45.25%, with the volume of 417 million USD, an increase of 265.31% than Q1, knitted garments and accessories accounted for the largest part of export, to 22.06%, with the volume of 2.02 billion USD, 19.98% higher than Q1.

Category 12  Shoes, hats and umbrella; feather products; artificial flower and artificial hair

China-ASEAN trade volume in shoes, hats and umbrella; feather products; artificial flower and artificial hair totaled 1.71 billion USD, accounting for 1.48% of the total trade volume. China’s import reached 324 million USD, and export 1.38 billion USD. Footwear, leg warmer and similar products accounted for the largest part of import, to 98.99%, with the volume of 321 million USD, an increase of 307.80% than Q1; it also accounted for the largest part of export, to 83.04%, with the volume of 1.15 billion USD, 51.74% higher than Q1.

Category 13 Mineral Products, Ceramics, Glass and Products

The China-ASEAN trade in terms of mineral products, ceramics, glass and products amounts to 1.831 billion USD, which occupies 1.59% of bilateral trade volume. China imported 0.134 billion USD and exported 1.697 billion USD. Glass and its products maintains the largest proportion in import as 85.61% and 0.115 billion USD. Ceramics and its products is the largest export category as 52.66% and 0.911 billion USD. Among import products, glass and its products achieved the largest growth of 60.1%. While among export products, mineral products enjoyed the greatest growth of 30.47%.

Category 14 Jewelry, precious metal and its products, imitation jewelry, coins

The trade value between China and ASEAN on jewelry, precious metal and its products, imitation jewelry, coins was 1.87 billion USD, accounting for 1.62% of total trade between China and ASEAN. China’s import was 1.55 billion USD and the export was 0.32 billion USD. The import increased by 92.05% while the export increased by 15.67%.

Category 15 Base-metal and its products

In terms of base-metal and related products, trade volume totaled 9.21 billion USD, accounting for 7.89% of the total trade volume. China’s import reached 932 million USD and export 8.28 billion USD. Of the import volume, bronze and its products accounted for the largest proportion, accounting for 49.67%, with the import volume of 463 million USD. Iron and steel accounted for 43.07% of the export volume, reaching 3.56 billion USD. Of the imported products, iron and steel saw the biggest increase compared to the first quarter, with an increase of 105.88%. Of the exported products, zinc and its products saw the biggest increase than Q1, with an increase of 233.65%, while it saw the biggest decline of the import volume, a decline of 71.61%. Of the exported products, only tin and its products showed a downward trend with a decline of 99.70%.

Category 16 Audio equipment and its parts and accessories

In terms of electrical and mechanical and audio equipments and their parts and accessories, China-ASEAN trade volume totaled 43.03 billion USD, accounting for 37.27% of the total trade volume. China’s import reached 21.15 billion USD and export 21.89 billion USD. Of import and export volume, electric machine, electricity, audio equipment and their parts and accessories accounted for the largest proportion, accounting for 75.68% and 57.41%,with the trade volume of 10.61 billion USD and 12.56 billion USD respectively. Electric machine, electricity and audio equipments and their parts and accessories saw the biggest increase in import and export volume compared to Q1, with an increase of 24.40% and 20.70% respectively.

Category 17 Air crafts, ships and related transportation equipment

In terms of vehicles, China-ASEAN trade volume in air crafts, ships and related transportation equipment totaled 5.18 billion USD, accounting for 4.49% of the total trade volume. China’s import reached 1.38 billion USD and export 3.80 billion USD. Of the import and export volume, vehicles(railway vehicle excluded) and their parts and accessories accounted for the largest proportion, accounting for 17.70% and 48%, with a trade volume of 244 million USD and 1.83 billion USD respectively. Railway vehicle, devices and signaling equipment saw the biggest increase than Q1, by 86.99%, while aircraft and space vehicles declined the most than Q1 by 19.05%.

Category 18 Optical and medical equipments, clocks and musical instruments

In terms of optical and medical equipments, clocks and musical instruments, China-ASEAN trade volume totaled 3.23 billion USD, accounting for 2.8% of the total trade volume. China’s import reached 1.18 billion USD and export 2.06 billion USD. Of the import and export volume, optical, photographic and medical equipments and their accessories accounted for the largest proportion, accounting for 92.37% and 94.38%, and with a trade volume of 1.09 billion USD and 1.94 billion USD respectively. Of Category 18, clock and its products saw the biggest increase than Q1, with an increase of 49.61%.

Category 20 Miscellaneous products

In terms of miscellaneous products, China-ASEAN trade volume totaled 3.94 billion USD, accounting for 3.41% of the total trade volume. China’s import reached 165 million USD, and export 3.78 billion USD. Furniture, bedding, lights and prefabricated house accounted for the largest proportion of import and export volume, accounting for 90.67% and 69.91%, and with a trade volume of 150 million USD and 2.64 billion USD respectively.

To be continued